Is there a way back for the government?
It is in the nature of politics to be up one minute and down the next; especially recently things have been so fluid that I have stopped regarding opinion polls as even a static picture of public opinion though it has been possible to discern some trends. Interestingly, the last couple of opinion polls have seen incremental increases for Labour which leads to me posing the above question. I think the increases reflect a certain rallying of Labour core support as Brown has shifted the debate onto the ‘cuts v investment’ territory and the small % increase is people rallying to their natural party. Also, it has coincided with the rise of economic confidence which can hardly be a coincidence. However, depending on that would be a risky strategy for the government mostly because we are far from out of the woods economically speaking.
Let’s be clear however, there is no way this government can actually win the next election. The overwhelming feeling is simply that Labour has been in power too long and that is not an unjust feeling; it is time for a change of leadership for this country and the Labour Party itself would benefit from a spell in opposition. Yes, there would be bloodshed but sometimes that becomes necessary; destruction begets creation and after the intervening chaos and open warfare as the battle for the heart and soul of the party rages it would emerge having rediscovered a creative vision and purpose. In power, the Party’s raison d’ etre has simply become a squalid attempt to cling onto power thus we are treated to weak leadership and Queens Speeches so emaciated they are embarrassing.
What the slight spike in the polls points too is the possibility that Labour can avoid complete meltdown by at least maintaining some core support and keeping Cameron’s majority suitably low or maybe even, in an extreme scenario denying him the swing needed to form a government with a working majority. I think, in practice, this is now what Labour are focused on because nobody can seriously expect people to be convinced enough to return a working Labour majority. This would also explain why Brown is plugging the ‘cuts v investment’ line; it is a core vote strategy, not one to win outright power.
For us this is something we need to be aware of because we are dead-set on winning seats off of Labour and realistically have to be resigned to some losses in the Shires and South-West. It raises the spectre of a possible electoral squeeze and although we are polling consistently in the high teens which is a huge positive we have to be redoubling our efforts in those key target seats and be wary of what is happening on our flanks. If Labour can succeed in this strategy it will most likely to be to the detriment of us….