Great expectations in Norwich North…
Iain Dale has a blog forecasting a tight finish but still a Conservative victory with a majority of 1-2’000. I think this is probably how it will end-up finishing. The interest will be in the lower placings and how we fare against a split and collapsing Labour vote. I am not convinced by our hype that we are in with a chance of winning but the conditions in Norwich North will provide something of a baraometre measuring how we can perform against Labour in what are very difficult conditions for them.
I have only seen one poll and that put us on 15%, one % ahead of the Greens on 14 and that didn’t look good. However, the Tweets and blogs have been very encouraging though I cant help feeling this is more than a little mood music and in reality we will be nowhere near close to challenging the Conservatives. When we are lacking a base in a seat that should be our aim and expectation rather than pulling off a visually stunning by-election victory. However, I am hoping that we will be comfortably placed ahead of the Greens and that Nick Clegg’s earlier, rather disastrous, newspaper interview this morning won’t impact too heavily on that standing.
So, my day-early prediction for Norwich North is as follows;
3. Liberal Democrats
Rather boring and mundane to be sure but I don’t see this one producing too many surprises (and it should worry Labour that a Conservative victory isn’t regarded as a shock in this context….).