Conservatives ahead in marginals
UK Polling Report has this story which has also been reported elsewhere about the Conservatives taking a commanding lead in marginal seats. The headline figures in what is believed to be the Top 30 Conservative target seats are CON 44% LAB 20% LIB DEMS 18% which, as is pointed out brings them largely in line with national figures as the 8.5% swing in these seats translates into a 14% swing nationally. What struck me first off was that the poll was a bit one-sided in that a survey of Liberal Democrat key targets would have revealed with there is the prospect of tactical anti-Labour voting or whether this is a solidification of a trend of Conservative voters returning home as it were.
People are defiantly willing to give the Conservatives a chance and that is emphasised by a comparison with figures from the last election: CON 38%, LAB 31%, LDEM25% where peoples hesitancy and lack of conviction in backing the Conservatives boosted us. Of the top 30 Conservative seats, 9 belong to us which should give some pause for thought. The Conservatives benefit rather unfairly from Lord Ashcroft’s largess which will give them considerable clout in the ‘air and ground war’ in these seats and countering that will be hard on the back of a national mood for change.
One of the first tasks of the new chief executive however should be to open up once again the question of our key seats strategy and how it will play out in practice. Fighting a rear-guard action while trying to advance will no doubt be tricky but not impossible though perhaps the first thing should be a focus on infrastructure in these seats to compensate for lack of Ashcroft with active and enthusiastic members and the resources they bring to a campaign.