Polls show no change…Conservatives get over-excited…
Two opinion polls have been published tonight which, broadly speaking, have shown no change in the political picture. ICM’s headline figures show the Conservatives on 43%, Labour on 26% and Liberal Democrats on 19%. Since these changes are all within the margin of error it maybe that the interest here will be in the results of a question about PM being PM.
You Gov shows all main parties up 1%, presumably at the expense of ‘Others’ whose poll honeymoon following the Euro Elections and expenses-gate seems to be well and truly over. Headline figures are Conservatives 42%, Labour 28% and Liberal Democrats 19%. According to the comments on UK Polling Report the fieldwork for the You Gov poll took place on 13/14 August which is in the middle of the Dan Hannan, Twitter NHS saga. Given, the reaction of Conservatives on Twitter, including their Head of Press, they seem to be breathing a collective sigh of relief:
Turbulent political week ends on high note for Conservatives and intriguing news for Mandy. Details of new poll later…about 12 hours ago from web
I can’t help but feel the relief makes it’s own comment. Having said that this does confirm what I have felt for a long time that a significant amount of people have simply decided it’s time for change and nothing will shift them. However, I still think there is scope for the events of the last week to shore-up core Labour support and maybe persuade some of them to stop sitting on their hands. If Labour has any sense (and that is debatable) it will pursue a strategy or rallying the core vote in a damage limitation exercise and abandon realistic efforts to secure a forth term.
I think this thinking is what lies behind Labour’s handling of the Hannan affair; something Mike Smithson feels Labour and Andy Burnham in particular ‘screwed-up’. However, what other options are realistically left to the Labour Party other than to retreat in the best order it can?