Polls show no change…Conservatives get over-excited…

Two opinion polls have been published tonight which, broadly speaking, have shown no change in the political picture. ICM’s headline figures show the Conservatives on 43%, Labour on 26% and Liberal Democrats on 19%.  Since these changes are all within the margin of error it maybe that the interest here will be in the results of a question about PM being PM.

You Gov shows all main parties up 1%, presumably at the expense of ‘Others’ whose poll honeymoon following the Euro Elections and expenses-gate seems to be well and truly over. Headline figures are Conservatives 42%, Labour 28% and Liberal Democrats 19%. According to the comments on UK Polling Report the fieldwork for the You Gov poll took place on 13/14 August which is in the middle of the Dan Hannan, Twitter NHS saga. Given, the reaction of Conservatives on Twitter, including their Head of Press, they seem to be breathing a collective sigh of relief:

Turbulent political week ends on high note for Conservatives and intriguing news for Mandy. Details of new poll later…about 12 hours ago from web

I can’t help but feel the relief makes it’s own comment. Having said that this does confirm what I have felt for a long time that a significant amount of people have simply decided it’s time for change and nothing will shift them. However, I still think there is scope for the events of the last week to shore-up core Labour support and maybe persuade some of  them to stop sitting on their hands. If Labour has any sense (and that is debatable) it will pursue a strategy or rallying the core vote in a damage limitation exercise and abandon realistic efforts to secure a forth term.

I think this thinking is what lies behind Labour’s handling of the Hannan affair; something Mike Smithson feels Labour and Andy Burnham in particular ‘screwed-up’.  However, what other options are realistically left to the Labour Party other than to retreat in the best order it can?


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About darrellgoodliffe


2 responses to “Polls show no change…Conservatives get over-excited…”

  1. Siberian Tory says :

    A good analysis. I agree this issue if played correctly will get the Labour core out and limit the damage at the next election. Personally, I don’t thin Labour has handled it very well. My sense is that while the public don’t agree with Hannan misrepresenting the NHS on US television (which I believe he did) they certainly don’t subscribe to the line Labour is spinning either.

    I wouldn’t be sure the damage won’t show through on the next set of polls for the Conservatives. But I do think the Alan Duncan affair could have been more damaging than the Hannan so in some
    respects Hannan buried more damaging story.


  2. Darrell says :

    Thanks for the comment. I agree that Labour have not handled it that well at all; coming at it from the top-down as always. However, I am not sure with what you about Duncan because like you say it did bury it and also expenses seems to have slipped off the agenda.


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