Cameron’s long road to Number 10….
Jonathon Isaby has an interesting post on Conservative Home dissecting the latest YouGov poll which makes far from happy reading for David Cameron on one level. It, in the words of Isaby, is a ‘reality check’ for Conservatives who are confident that all they have to do is show-up on election night to sweep to power. Another reality check should come in the news that Conservative membership has still plummeted by ‘almost a quarter’.
In many ways I think this is the more worrying statistic for Cameron and Co because while the YouGov poll obviously shows a big Conservative lead it will be even harder converting that into electoral gains if the activist base is so diminished. The poll also shows that people support Cameron’s changes to the Conservatives they are not wholly convinced;
“Its findings include substantial support for the Brown Central claim that Mr Cameron is “all spin and no substance””
However, the support for the changes Cameron has made show that there are also few crumbs of comfort for the traditionalists at ‘Continuity IDS’. Whether they like it or not; electoral support for the Conservatives does seem very much to be predicated on support for the ‘Cameroons’; therefore if they attempt to push their agenda too early, even relying on the slew of right-wing PPC’s they will probably force an early schism with the electorate. This point is especially true when you consider the fact that, as Isaby himself points out, the electoral maths probably will mean Cameron’s Conservatives will wake-up with less than a landslide.
Specifically on things like taxation the poll finds overwhelming support (69%) for the view that ‘taxing the rich’ should be a priority. The poll also shows that the party is struggling to make inroads into Labour heartlands in the north which, for us, shows where our focus should be. If the Conservatives can’t make inroads, despite their rather lame attempt at progressive re-branding, then a clear vacuum exists which we can and should be able to fill.