How did my ’10 for 2010′ fare?
I do intend to write a proper review of the year this time around but it seems a little out of synch to do that yet. However, we can see how my predictions for 2010 fared. So, without further ado….
1. The Conservative majority after the General Election will be between 0 and 30.
Full marks here. They, of course, fell short of achieving an overall majority themselves.
2. Liberal Democrats will occupy between 45-50 seats after the election.
At one point this was looking like it would be wildly off but was closer than all that. I was right that in terms of seats occupied they would make no progress and in fact lose seats however, they currently occupy 57 seats which represents a loss of 5 on where they were. However, since that’s suggested and not stated it’s a nul point here though….
3. In the General Election; both Caroline Lucas and Nigel Farage will be elected.
Half a mark again because Lucas was elected to represent Brighton Pavillion but Farage bombed in Buckingham; there is an interesting piece on Political Betting about this here which delves into some of the reasons for UKIP under-performing in Westminster elections and rather leads you to conclude they will struggle to ever get an MP elected.
4.In the local elections, Liberal Democrats will lose control of Liverpool and Leeds but retain Sheffield.
I was being over-kind to the Liberal Democrats here because they failed even to retain control of Sheffield. This is a precursor of what is to come with Liberal Democrat councillors about to become as rare as a cheerful turkey at Christmas in the north of England after May 2011. Half a mark.
5.A virtual unknown (at least a junior minister or below) will replace Gordon Brown as leader of the Labour Party.
This rather depends on how generous you want to be. Ed Miliband certainly was known but he certainly was not as well known David Miliband and I don’t think his position at Environment can, on one level, be deemed as junior (though its traditionally one of those lower down the imaginary pecking order of ministerial posts). However, the general gist, which is correct, deserves recognition so I think this worth half a mark.
6.Nick Clegg will not be leader of the Liberal Democrats by the end of 2010.
Clegg is sadly still in position but this is one of those ones that I would put on ice because I think it may well be good for 2011.
7. As Iain says, Iran will be bombarded but my prediction is it will defiantly be Israel and not the USA who does. In response, China and Russia will form a new defence organisation to rival NATO.
Both me and Iain Dale got this one badly wrong because although sabres continued to be rattled there was no serious military action against Iran. Indeed, the current ‘hot zone’ in these terms is the Korean Peninsula. Having said all that again I would put this one on ice, maybe not for 2011 but eventually…..
8. A demonstration against the war in Afghanistan will attract over a million people.
Totally wrong. Afghanistan has virtually vanished as a major political issue and protests against it don’t have wider appeal than the ‘usual suspects’ mainly because people are broadly satisfied with the withdrawal pledges that have been made.
9. By the end of 2010 the Conservatives poll rating will start to decline.
Again, this is wrong. Labour is moving into the lead but this is not because of the Conservatives declining in any major way. It’s on the back of the spectacular collapse of their yellow wing.
10. Britain will show moderate economic growth (no more than 1.5% overall) and optimism will start to sharply decline at the end of the year.
Although I don’t have the precise figures (still waiting for final quarter) its obvious I was far too optimistic in terms of the upper limit and consumer and business confidence is indeed slip-slidey so I think that is worth a full mark.
So, the final score is 3 1/2 out of 10 (or 4 if you want to be generous re 5)…..