The Euro-noose tightens around Cameron’s neck…

Although the next General Election is, in theory, legally guaranteed to be on the 7th May 2015 I have never believed that would be the case. This government is too unstable – it has too many internal contradictions to stay the course. I don’t just mean the obvious ones between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats but also the ones within both parties. It is these tensions that I would argue that are potentially more explosive and, specifically, it is those within the Conservative Party that will ultimately bring the government down.

Europe is not only a major cause of these tensions but, potentially, it is a huge lightening rod for discontent over other issues. David Cameron is in a bind something that the tone of his article in The Times today seems to rather encapsulate. On the one hand, pragmatically, he knows that the Eurozone needs to survive and prosper if it is not to drag the UK down with it but on the other hand he is surrounded by a Parliamentary Party that is instinctively hostile to Europe. So, he cannot be seen to be giving too much away but can’t be seen either to be holding Europe to ransom.

Since it is outside the Eurozone, Britain’s bargaining position is phenomenally weak. Why on earth, after-all, should countries whose economies and currency is at stake accept dictation from a country who has a lot at stake but nowhere near as much as that. My guess is that Cameron will not ultimately be able to win the concessions that his back-benchers want and that even if he does even a limited success will push them to demand more.

If Cameron is forced to depend on the Liberal Democrats more and more than that will only ultimately weaken both. The Liberal Democrats will not want to come across as too close to Cameron, especially as the election draws nearer and their losses mount. For Cameron, a similar problem exists, by dint of his social background (aristocratic as opposed to the upwardly mobile middle class Thatcherite wing) and occasional flash of social liberalism, he is alienated from large swathes of his Party. Depending on the Liberal Democrats will only reinforce the feeling in the Conservative Party that he is not really, at heart, one of them.

Labour needs to skillfully exploit these fissures. To do so it needs a worked out position on Europe which recognises the faults of the status quo but also ultimately drives the European project forward in the way that is best for the European people. Regardless of whether it can or not, Europe could be the issue which ensures we have a General Election on our hands much sooner than expected….

Advertisements

Tags: ,

About darrellgoodliffe

n.a

9 responses to “The Euro-noose tightens around Cameron’s neck…”

  1. ianrobo says :

    the first step towards this Darrell was Ed B stating quite open that no chance of Euro membership whilst he is in position, a bit snub to the few Blairites that harbour Euro membership.

    The second step is that we are never driven by Europe, we do want to be in it so hopefully today at PMQ’s the line will be along the lines of standiung on the sidelines whilst fighting a divided party, echos of Blair vs major.

    The fact is as you state correctly that Cameron knows that 1) big business does not want withdrawal (maybe we should then !!) and 2) he knows we are better in than out

    However for this to collapse the government the only way as Cameron is guarnteened around 200 Tory and LD votes is for labour to vote with the euroscpetics and frankly I can not see how this could be positioned to work.

    Like

  2. darrellgoodliffe says :

    Well as you know Ian this is one of the few things I agree with the Blairites on, I dont think striking a more Euroskeptical chord is the right solution….

    Just because business wants something does not automatically mean that we should not, as you know as far as I am concerned, socialism is international or nothing…I don’t see a future that is worthwhile for Britain as a little island of socialist bliss in a capitalist world…

    I dont know either but its certainly a possibility that an issue could be exploitied strategically in the future…

    Like

  3. ianrobo says :

    good first question from Ed, on an answer Cameron can not give

    Like

  4. ianrobo says :

    look at these mate

    frasernels Fraser Nelson
    EdMil taunting Cam about failure to repatriate powers from €zone. Cam looks stunned at new attack line. A Eurosceptic Labour wld be lethal

    TimMontgomerie Tim Montgomerie
    Clever #PMQs from Miliband. Cameron vowed to repatriate powers 6 weeks ago when he faced a rebellion. Now he won’t even mention the r word.

    Like

  5. ianrobo says :

    DouglasCarswell Douglas Carswell MP
    Alistair Darling kept us out of temp EZ bailout fund. I’ve got the official mandarin memo

    lining up Cam

    Like

  6. darrellgoodliffe says :

    Ian,

    I don’t care about the political gains Labour could make from being more Eurosceptic – it simply isn’t the right thing to do for the country’s best interests and surely that comes first, over those of our Party even?

    Like

    • ianrobo says :

      and here we have it …

      Cameron folds in totaly to his backbenchers and they will not be after far more in the new year

      I wonder if Ed can take the ‘weak weak weak’ line and make it play ?

      However the LD’s are fuming in private and a few in public and whilst I do not think they would call it off just yet, Cameron can not give up any more and yet large numbers of his own party will want to go to the next step.

      Like

  7. darrellgoodliffe says :

    Ian,

    I think thats right – I wasn’t happy with Ed’s response to be honest, was all over the show and well it looked errr weak….

    I think thats right, crisis of expectations potentially now….the Conservative right is like the plant from the Little Shop of Horrors – the more you feed it, the more it wants and will expect and demand…

    Like

    • ianrobo says :

      it is of course the reason we do not deal with kidnappers, the right have Cameron in their grip and your prediction of an early election is looking better and better, simply clegg can not allow Cameron any more now.

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: